Short-term forecast of fire in the premises based on modification of the Brown’s zero-order model

This paper reports the rationale for the
modification of Brown’s zero-order model,
which ensures increased accuracy of the
short-term fire forecast based on the use
of the current measure of recurrence in the
increments of the state of the air environment in the premises. A special feature of
the proposed model modification is that
the a priori model of the dynamics of the
level of the time series of the measure of the
current recurrence of increments in the air
environment states determined by the dangerous factors of the fire has been modified.
In this case, it is proposed that the new
a priori model should take into consideration
additionally the value of the current increments of the level of the studied time series.
That makes it possible to negligibly reduce
errors of the short-term forecast of fire in
the premises without significantly complicating Brown’s zero-order model while
retaining all its implementing advantages.
The provided accuracy of the forecast for
one step in advance on the basis of a time
series of measures of the current recurrence of increments of the state of the air
environment, determined from the experimental data during the ignition of alcohol
and timber in a laboratory chamber, has
been investigated. The considered quantitative indicators of forecast accuracy are
the absolute and average errors exponentially smoothed with a parameter of 0.4.
It has been established that for the proposed modification the value of the average absolute error does not exceed 0.02 %.
That means that an error of the short-term
forecast of a fire in the premises based
on the proposed modification is an order
of magnitude less than that in the case of
using known Brown’s model at the smoothing parameter from an unclustered set.
The results from the ignition of alcohol
and timber in the laboratory chamber, in
general, indicate significant advantages
of using the proposed modification of
Brown’s zero-order model for a short-term
forecast of a fire in the premises